The sales of electric bicycles have surpassed that of all-electric vehicles and may change urban traffic.

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This article is part of our series on the future of transportation, which explores the innovations and challenges that affect the way we travel in the world.

There is a joke about riding an electric bicycle in the public transportation circle: How do you know someone has an electric bicycle? They will tell you. Of course, the idea is that users of battery-powered two-wheelers tend to be preachers of the technology.

Take Monte Paulsen, a building energy consultant in Vancouver, British Columbia, for example. He used to drive five days a week. As a former "sunny cyclist", if the weather permits, he might ride a bicycle twice a month.

He believes that the pandemic is a good time to buy the electric cargo bike RadWagon from Rad Power Bikes, the best-selling electric bike company. Now, Mr. Paulson says that 90% of his travels are done with it.

"I started with a personal experiment to see how to reduce my carbon footprint," he said. "I always stick to it because it's really fun."

Modern life is full of moments of discovery of mobility: the first car driving as a teenager; the first time to take a train, plane or bus and see the world from a window seat. In these ten years, that moment is more and more likely to be the first time to ride an electric bicycle. It is often said that it will inspire joy, excitement and freedom like a child.

In fact, electric bicycles are everywhere. According to market research firm NPD Group, the pandemic bicycle boom has increased the sales of electric bicycles by 145% from 2019 to 2020, more than double the sales of classic bicycles.

Although estimates vary, industry experts believe that the number of electric bicycles that Americans will bring home in 2020 is about 500,000. (In contrast, according to the Pew Research Center, they bought 231,000 fully electric vehicles during that period — about two to one.)

And this growth does not seem to slow down. Deloitte estimates that between 2020 and 2023, 130 million electric bicycles will be sold worldwide. Currently, electric bicycles-not cars-seem to be the best-selling electric car or EV in the world

This trend has the potential to change urban traffic. According to a 2019 study by analyst firm INRIX, in New York City, only more than half of car trips are three miles or less. Suppose that many short car trips can be replaced by short, brisk electric bicycle rides. So what do you need to get there?

David Zipper, a visiting scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and an expert on new mobile technology, said that the surge in demand for electric rides is the product of three simultaneous developments.

The first is the rapid development of lithium-ion batteries. Mr. Zipper said that the batteries used to power electric vehicles in the past "become smaller, more efficient, and cheaper," which makes them suitable for use in scooters, mopeds, and "also suitable for smaller applications." , Such as bicycles."

He said that the second reason is the resurgence of interest in urban bicycles around the world in the past decade. The third is what he calls the "gateway drug" of the bike sharing program, which allows riders to try out electric bikes without having to buy them.

"You put them together, it's a natural product," said Mr. Zipper, who often uses Capital Bikeshare or CaBi in Washington. "E-bikes take advantage of all these things."

Most electric bicycles fall into three categories. The first is pedal assist, which provides motorized assistance to the rider, just like an invisible hand pushing them forward. The second is the accelerator, which allows the rider to zoom in at 20 miles per hour without pedaling, and is usually used by delivery drivers and couriers. The last one is faster pedal assist, allowing at least 28 mph

According to internal data provided by its parent company Lyft, for Citi Bike in New York, electric blue pedal assisted bicycles account for 20% of the fleet, but 35% of all rides. Given that this year's Citi Bike has ridden more than 3 million four times a month, this is a lot.

Laura Fox, Lyft's Citi Bike general manager, said that for long-distance travel, electric bicycles dominate. Approximately 63% of the rides between boroughs (maybe several miles) are battery-powered. For the longest borough trip (for example, Brooklyn to Bronx), it is 80%.

"There are clear data that people want to try them," Ms. Fox said. "When they do, it will become their main model choice."

In 2021, one-third of new Citi Bike riders will take an electric bike on their first trip, which usually costs more per minute than "classic" bikes. According to internal data provided by Lyft, at the shared bicycle dock, temporary users or users without annual subscriptions choose electric Citi bikes 70% of the time. The daily usage of electric bicycles is also as high as three times.

Proponents say that a study found that people ride bicycles at least twice as often when they own electric bikes, which refutes criticism that the convenience of cycling makes it a less effective activity. Riders may not sweat as much, but if they ride bicycles longer and more frequently, they may get more exercise.

Using it more often may also be crucial to reducing car travel. In Norway, which has a national bicycle network, car usage by electric bike users has declined because they know how far they can ride.

In the United States, there are indeed obstacles to getting more people to travel on electric bicycles. Electric bikes are not eligible for commuter tax benefits that cover public transportation and parking, and they are still expensive (prices range from less than $1,000 to nearly $10,000).

A parliamentary provision will provide tax credits and commuting benefits for electric bicycles, which are the same as the incentives in countries such as France.

But experts say that if riders are uncomfortable and there is no infrastructure that makes them feel safe, people will not use electric bicycles. Mr. Paulson said that when he started cycling more, Vancouver's bike-friendly streets were "half the equation."

Some countries are ahead of the United States in this regard. In the UK, the government is providing tax credits for electric bicycles and funding local efforts to expand bicycle lanes. According to a data from the market research company Mintel, the electric bicycle market there grew by 70% last year, with sales of 170,000 units in 2020.

But there are also challenges-entrepreneurs are trying to solve these challenges. While studying electrical engineering at the University of London, Adebola Adeleye used the city’s bike-sharing program Santander Cycles to move around. But he noticed some problems: the design of the bicycle, which was about 51 pounds at the time, is now close to 45 pounds, which is very heavy for novices.

"The style and weight actually limit the number of people using this product," Mr. Adley said.

So he started to build a prototype in his bedroom, which led to the Crown Cruiser, an electric bike that looked like it had been ridden from the set of "Blade Runner". Mr. Adeleye is now the CEO of CrownCruiser Motors, a new electric bike startup.

In an interview, Mr. Adeleye shared the screen with the company's director Mica Osbourne. They say that the stylish jet-black model is designed to cater to non-cyclists. Ms. Osborne said: “We want people to look at their cars the way they look at bicycles, and we don’t think this has happened yet.”

Fast, safe and stylish-to beat the car, people may have to think like a car. "We know that many people don't have confidence in bicycles, which is one of the reasons we hope this bicycle will make you different," Mr. Adeleye said.

If the bicycle can keep up and have enough space to move, then unzipping in traffic becomes an afterthought. "Because then you won't think about traffic. You want to give people that kind of freedom."